The 60–75% rule
At private events, three predictable leaks lower hat demand below headcount: a slice of guests never visits the bar (they're deep in conversation, they don't wear hats, they left at nine), couples and families frequently make one stop together, and late arrivals miss the window. Across our event history, invite-list redemption lands between 60% and 75% — higher when the bar sits on the main traffic path, lower when it's tucked in a side room.
The throughput ceiling matters too
A hat count your press lane can't physically finish is just decoration. One lane — one presser plus a line host — completes 40 to 60 caps per hour depending on how decisive the crowd is. That's why our tiers pair counts with hours: 100 caps across three hours, 200 across four, 400 across six with added capacity. If your schedule compresses everything into a 90-minute cocktail window, tell us — that's a two-lane build regardless of total count.
Worked examples
| Event | Guests | Right order | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wedding welcome party | 120 | 100 caps | High redemption; it IS the activity |
| Company holiday party | 300 | 200 caps | Standard 65% with a buffer |
| Conference reception | 500 | 300–350 caps | Session overlap trims visits |
| Public street fair | open | 400 caps, capped | The count becomes your budget ceiling |
When the rule breaks
Open-to-public events invert the logic: demand is unbounded, so the hat count stops being a forecast and becomes a spending cap — when the rack is empty, the bar closes, cleanly. And if the hat is your registration gift (every attendee gets one at badge pickup), order full count plus 5% for size and defect swaps.
Rather have us run the math? Send guest count and schedule through the date checker and the reply includes a recommended count.